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Statistical Analysis of PV System Installed Cost Trends in California Performing Organization: Key Technical Contacts: DOE HQ Technology Manager: FY 2005 Budget: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) Ryan Wiser (LBNL, Primary Contact), 510-486-5474, RHWiser@lbl.gov Mark Bolinger (LBNL) Scott Hassell, 202-586-4434, scott.hassell@ee.doe.gov $50K (DOE/EERE/PAE) ____________________________________________________________________________________ Objectives • Analyze the installed cost of grid-connected PV systems in California, using data provided by the state’s two largest rebate programs (overseen by the California Energy Commission [CEC] and the California Public Utilities Commission [CPUC]). • Using multivariate regression techniques, tease out interesting cost trends and identify potential drivers of those trends. • Based on regression results, identify important policy or program design issues that can be implemented to more effectively support the development of a market for PV and drive PV installed system costs lower. Accomplishments • Cleaned the data (consisting of information on nearly 19,000 PV systems) during summer 2005. • Completed the statistical analysis in October 2005. • Drafting of LBNL report in progress, with external peer review expected in December 2005. Future Directions • Publish final LBNL report, as well as peer-reviewed journal article, in early 2006. • May expand analysis to other state PV programs and/or conduct a cross-state cost comparison. ____________________________________________________________________________________ 1. Introduction Markets for photovoltaics (PV) are expanding rapidly, albeit from a small base. In 2004, more than 955 MWAC of PV capacity was installed worldwide, up from 658 MWAC in 2003. The growth in worldwide annual capacity additions has averaged about 35% since 1996, dominated by grid-connected applications. Despite this vigorous growth, the share of worldwide electricity demand met with PV power remains miniscule, well below 0.1%, and the aggregate PV capacity added in 2004 equates to just one mid-sized natural gas- fired generating plant. The primary constraint to future expansion is economics.Simplyput,solarPVisnotyetcost- competitive in most grid-connected applications, and substantial cost reductions will be required for PV to meaningfully contribute to worldwide electricity supply. As a result, local, state, and federal government incentives have been (and will continue to be) the principal drivers of growth in grid-connected PV capacity. A key goal of these policy efforts is that of market transformation: to drive down the cost of PV over time to a level that does not require substantial government stimulation. The cost of PV installations is not uniform, however, and can vary based on time, system size, type of installation (e.g., retrofit versus new construction), installer experience, and other factors. Solar costs might also be affected by the level and design of policy incentives provided to those installations. This project presents the results of a statistical evaluation of cost trends in California’s market for residential and commercial grid-connected PV. It is based on an analysis of 18,942 PV systems totaling 254 MW, which have either been completed, approved, or wait-listed under California’s two largest solar rebate programs. (NOTE:ThedatarepresentbothCECandCPUC programs. The CPUC program only funds systems larger than 30 kW, and many of the systems are in the several 100-kW range.) EERE Crosscutting Activities 178PDF Image | DOE Solar Energy Technologies Program
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