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Performing Organization: Key Technical Contacts: DOE HQ Technology Manager: FY 2005 Budget: 1. Introduction The model also provides the potential for analysis of multiple EERE technologies including PV and other distributed-generation technologies from the end user’s perspective in a competitive marketplace, tracking building stock on a regional basis. 2. Technical Approach The project is a modeling effort using these tools: Solar PV analysis engine (TRNSYS, Excel spreadsheets, FORTRAN) • Financial performance calculator (Excel) • Market penetration simulator (Excel and VBA). 3. Results and Accomplishments This project was funded late in FY 2005. In FY 2005 an “alpha” version of the SolarDS model was completed, which incorporates the basic financial calculators, PV supply and building load simulation tools, customer choice simulation, and market penetration estimator. Initial findings were presented at the Office of Planning, Budget, and Analysis weekly review meeting in April 2005. The Energy Analysis Office (EAO) at NREL is developing the Solar Deployment Systems (SolarDS) model to evaluate the potential market penetration of solar PV technology. SolarDS examines the market competitiveness of solar PV technologies from the building user’s perspective, considering capital costs, electricity prices and utility rate structures, incentives, and net metering policies. SolarDS is being developed with the • flexibility to consider market penetration of a range of DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) technologies, including distributed generation and other end-use energy technologies. SolarDS is designed to provide a quick- turnaround, internal-analysis alternative to more complicated (and often less flexible) models such as NEMS. It provides flexible analysis of potential PV market penetration in buildings, explicitly considering coincidence of PV output and building loads and enabling multiple sensitivities (e.g., technology improvements, changes in electricity prices and rate structures, tax policies, financing) EERE Crosscutting Activities 176 Solar Deployment Systems Model National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Robert Margolis (NREL, Primary Contact), 202-646-5053, Robert_margolis@nrel.gov Paul Denholm (NREL), 303-384-9051, paul_denholm@nrel.gov Scott Hassell, 202-586-4434, scott.hassell@ee.doe.gov $50K (DOE/EERE/PAE) ____________________________________________________________________________________ Objectives • Develop a flexible model to evaluate the potential market penetration of solar PV technology. Accomplishments • Completed an “alpha” version of the Solar Deployment Systems (SolarDS) model. • Presented an overview of model methods and results to the Office of Planning, Budget, and Analysis for feedback. Future Directions • Complete a more fully featured version of the SolarDS model. • Solicit feedback from NREL solar program and incorporate changes as needed. • Prepare documentation of the basic model structure for client and anticipated model users. • Develop a basic set of “scenarios” (including fuel prices, capital costs, etc.) and perform model runs to develop PV penetration analysis under these basic scenarios. ____________________________________________________________________________________PDF Image | DOE Solar Energy Technologies Program
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