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o Currently updating parametric capability to allow additional parameterization of non-numerical values (e.g., single case comparison of multiple modules types operating under multiple climate conditions using tracking or no-tracking configurations). Future Directions • Analysis o Continue work on analysis of long-term benefits of solar. o Complete review of out-year cost and performance targets. • Benchmarking o Continue to benchmark all solar technologies, with this year’s emphasis on broadening the technology base to include thin-film technologies on a statistically significant basis. o Quantify non-hardware costs of PV installations and establish related cost-reduction targets. • Modeling o Continue detailed evaluations of TIO and technology impacts on reducing system costs as direct input to PV portfolio balancing and stage-gate criteria definition. o Evaluate beta version of multi-technology model (CSP and SDHW models). o Begin external review and validation of model. o Add risk and uncertainty analysis capabilities. ____________________________________________________________________________________ 1. Introduction The DOE Solar Program began the formulation of a Systems-Driven Approach (SDA) to R&D portfolio management and prioritization with a workshop held in December 2002. The DOE Solar Program Multi-Year Program Plan (MYPP) states that “we have implemented the use of our Systems-Driven Approach to guide us through difficult programmatic options and to make sound decisions considering limited resources.” The SDA provides a framework for program planning that supports this objective. Under the tasks described below, data and tools are being developed and applied to support the use of SDA in decision- making by program management. The SDA team works closely with other projects, especially the PV Systems Analysis project. 2. Technical Approach The SDA is the basis for the multi-step planning process used in the Solar Program for portfolio decision-making. The SDA allows us to assure that all technical targets for R&D on the components and systems funded through the Solar Program are derived from a common market perspective and national goals, and the resultant technologies are tested and validated in the context of established criteria for each market. The key steps in the decision-making process are: • Identifying technology improvement opportunities and analyzing impact on LCOE • Assessing research activity contributions to technology improvement • Developing a multi-year research portfolio • Assessing progress. Analysis, Benchmarking, and Modeling activities are the three primary components of the SDA efforts. In FY 2005, activities focused primarily on new PV modeling capabilities and associated applications directly in support of the development of the MYPP. Task Title Analysis Benchmarking Modeling 2.1 Analysis FY 2005 Budget ($K) 430 410 560 149 Systems Integration and Coordination Analysis is used to establish a sound basis for understanding the system and policy drivers of solar technologies in various markets. Results from analysis activities are linked to the broader SDA process and provide a market context for the benchmarking and modeling efforts. We are developing long-term market-penetration projections for solar technologies by examining both system and policy drivers of solar technologies in various markets in both the short- and long-term, as well as improving the analytical basis for projecting the program’s economic and environmental benefits. Existing models, such as MARKAL and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), are used to carry out analysis, and feedback is provided on how to improve thePDF Image | DOE Solar Energy Technologies Program
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