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Concentrating Solar Deployment System (CSDS) – A New Model for Estimating U.S. Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Market Potential ABSTRACT This paper presents the Concentrating Solar Deployment System Model (CSDS). CSDS is a multiregional, multitime- period, Geographic Information System (GIS), and linear programming model of capacity expansion in the electric sector of the U.S. CSDS is designed to address the principal market and policy issues related to the penetration of concentrating solar power (CSP) electric sector technologies. This paper discusses the current structure, capabilities, and assumptions of the model. Additionally, results are presented for the impact of continued research and development (R&D) spending, an extension to the investment tax credit (ITC), and use of a production tax credit (PTC). CSDS is an extension of the Wind Deployment System (WinDS) model created at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). While WinDS examines issues related to wind, CSDS is an extension to analyze similar issues for CSP applications. Specifically, a detailed representation of parabolic trough systems with thermal storage has been developed within the existing structure. 1. BACKGROUND and MODEL OVERVIEW CSDS is a computer model of expansion of generation and transmission capacity in the U.S. electric sector spanning the next 50 years. It minimizes system-wide costs of meeting loads, reserve requirements, and emission constraints by building and operating new generators and transmission in each of 26 two-year periods from 2000 to 2050. CSDS is focused on addressing the market issues of greatest significance to renewables – specifically issues of transmission and resource variability. CSDS attempts to examine these issues, primarily by using a much higher level of geographic disaggregation than other models. Other models – such as the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) model used by the U.S. Energy Information Agency – have only a few regions in the U.S. (13 in the case of NEMS). Because of this, these models have to make assumptions about the cost of transmission and resource variability on the electric grid. With a high level of geographic disaggregation, we can model these geographic impacts more directly within the model. CSDS uses 358 different regions in the entire United States. Much of the data inputs to CSDS are tied to these regions and derived from a detailed GIS model/database of the renewable resources, transmission grid, and existing plant data. The geographic disaggregation of solar resources allows CSDS to calculate transmission distances and the benefits of dispersed solar plants supplying power to a demand region. For CSP, a certain level of average radiation is needed before the resource can be considered to be viable. In the United States, those viable resource areas are located primarily within the southwestern states. Therefore, in the CSDS model, this subset of regions is the area in which CSP solar plants are allowed (Fig. 1). This reduction in the number of regions significantly reduces the run-time requirements of the CSDS additions to WinDS, as well as the amount of solar GIS inputs. The entire United States is still modeled, and wind power and conventional generation are built as needed throughout the country. Similar to the model’s existing breakdown of wind resource into five standard classes, the solar resource appropriate for CSP systems has also been divided into five classes that are defined by the annual average direct normal radiation. The breakdown by class is: • Class 1 is 6.75 - 6.99 kW/m2/day • Class 2 is 7.00 - 7.24 kW/m2/day • Class 3 is 7.25 - 7.49 kW/m2/day • Class 4 is 7.50 - 7.74 kW/m2/day • Class 5 is 7.75 - 8.06 kW/m2/day Nathan Blair Mark Mehos Walter Short Donna Heimiller National Renewable Energy Laboratory 1617 Cole Boulevard Golden, Colorado 80401-3393 1PDF Image | Concentrating Solar Deployment System (CSDS) A New Model for Estimating U.S. Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Market Potential
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