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Country or Region Denmark Germany Time Period 1982– 1997 1990– 1998 Est. Learning Rate (%) 8 8 Performance Metric (dependent variable) investment price ($/kW) investment price ($/kW) Experience Metric (independent variable) cumulative capacity (MW) cumulative capacity (MW) B-6 SL-5641 Final Reference or Data R2* Source n.a. Neij (1999) *** 0.95 Durstewitz (1999) Note: Adapted from Kobos (2002) * As described in McDonald and Schrattenholzer (2001), comparing R2 values between sources must be done with caution (e.g., different sources use differently sized data sets; therefore, the respective R2 is relative to that data set). ** The Wene (2000) reference adapts results from Neij (1999). *** The Neij (1999) results include all Danish-produced wind turbines. B.7 OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE COSTS The O&M cost projections provided in the SunLab cost model are based on actual data from Kramer Junction with projections for increased plant size and improvements in operation and maintenance. Kramer Junction provides a dependable basis for costs associated for near-term deployment. Sargent & Lundy reviewed the SunLab cost model against interviews and actual data provided to us during our site visit and our knowledge and internal database information of O&M costs for electric power plants. We reviewed the SunLab assumptions and made adjustments as appropriate based on our experience and information provided by Kramer Junction. B.8 FINANCIAL MODELING B.1.1 Analysis Methodology The financial model used for developing generating costs is a spreadsheet pro forma financial model of the type used in competitive industry to support power project planning and financing. S&L regularly reviews such models as part of our due diligence practice, working with lenders and investors in project financing. In some cases we also support project developers by writing and maintaining such models for them. The main analysis engine is a standard income statement that includes calculations of energy production, revenues, operation and maintenance expenses, fuel expenses, depreciation, insurance, property taxes, interest, investment tax credit, and income tax. The investment tax credit for solar technologies is represented. Once after-tax income was determined in the income statement, depreciation was added back and payback of debt principal was subtracted to obtain cash available for dividends. The dividend stream and equity investment intoPDF Image | Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts
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