Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts

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Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts ( assessment-parabolic-trough-and-power-tower-solar-technology )

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B.1 SUMMARY The study was carried out as follows. The methodology Sargent used to carry out the study is described in this section. B.2 • Sargent & Lundy collected data and analyses of the current status of trough and tower technologies. • Sargent & Lundy reviewed the SunLab Cost Models, industry data, and relevant studies regarding capital cost projections for near-term deployment, cost projections for technology improvements, and plant scale-up through 2020. • Sargent & Lundy assessed the level of cost reductions and performance improvements, based on our experience, that are likely to be achieved. • Sargent & Lundy developed a financial model to calculate LEC based on project financing assumptions, investment costs, and operations and maintenance costs. COLLECTION OF DATA Sargent & Lundy received relevant documents from NREL and Sandia Laboratory for our independent review. During the review process, additional documents were gathered from industry sources, the Internet, and our internal S&L library. The list of documents is included in Appendix A. Our objective was to review relevant documents, both pro and con, to make our assessment. For example, the Teagan report was critical of the methods used in previous reports to predict cost reductions, in particular learning curves (Teagan 2001). B.3 REVIEW OF SUNLAB COST MODEL Sargent & Lundy reviewed the SunLab cost model and determined that the SunLab cost model approach and methodology is reasonable. The SunLab cost model was developed based on industry cost data and engineering evaluation. The following industry cost data were used for the cost models: • Actual cost data from construction of the SEGS plants and costs of equipment being supplied for O&M were used (e.g., HCEs). • Actual cost data from Solar Two were used as the “starting point” and adjusted for present prices. The steam generator cost estimate was based on four vendors’ designs and quotes for B-1 SL-5641 Final B. METHODOLOGY

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