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5-58 SL-5641 Final 100-MW steam turbine. The ABB quotation was escalated and scaled-up for the larger sizes. The SunLab power block cost estimates are based on dated information and the escalation and scale-up factors add to the uncertainty of the data with respect to current pricing. Equipment prices in the SOAPP program reflect 2001 actual costs. Since the SOAPP pricing is current, the SOAPP-generated costs are more characteristic of current power block costs. • SunLab cost estimate included an average contingency of 7.8%, compared to S&L’s estimate of 10% for direct costs and 15% for cost reductions. • The SunLab estimate for engineering, management, and development is 7.8%, whereas S&L estimated 15%. • SunLab estimated a risk pool factor of 10% for only Solar Tres, whereas S&L estimated that risk pool factor of 10% for Solar Tres and 5% for Solar 50. Based on the above, the risk of achieving the near-term total investment cost is low to average. 5.8.3.2 Mid Term (2010) The SunLab projected mid-term total investment cost indicates a total cost of $3,103/kWe, a reduction of $4,032/kWe from the near-term projected cost of $7,135/kWe, mainly attributable to the following: • An increase in the plant size from 15 MW to 100 MW, which reduces the $/kWe cost by virtue of the larger kWe size. • Reduced cost of solar collection system components from near-term cost of $145/m2 to $107/m2 as a result of technological advances, scale-up, and production volume. • Reduced cost of electric power generation system components from a near-term cost of $733/kWe to $400/kWe, primarily as a result of scale-up. • Reduction of the receiver system capital cost from the near-term cost of $50/m2 to $27/m2 as a result of technology, scale-up, and volume production. There is a mid to high risk of achieving the SunLab projected mid-term total investment cost of $2,876/kWe, based on the following: • The SunLab projected reduced cost of solar collection system components is based on one 15-MW plant, six 50-MW plants and six 100-MW plants with an increase from 95 m2 to 148 m2 for the 100-MW plants. Market expansion of tower technology will require incentives to reach the projected level of deployment. • The SunLab projected mid-term net annual solar-to-electric efficiency is 16.6%; an improvement of 2.9 percentage points from the near-term projected efficiency of 13.7%. The solar field size, and thus the solar field cost, is directly proportional to the net annual solar-to- electric efficiency of a tower plant. As previously discussed, there is a high risk of achieving the mid-term net annual solar-to-electric efficiency of 17.0%. A mid-term net annual solar-to-PDF Image | Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts
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