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4-44 SL-5641 Final 4.6.5.1 Near Term (2004) The SunLab projected near-term O&M cost is based on an HCE replacement rate of 2%, a net annual solar-to- electric efficiency of 14.3%, and 12 hours of thermal storage. As previously indicated, there is a low risk of achieving the near-term net annual solar-to-electric efficiency and the technological risk using the two-tank molten-salt storage system is low. However, the HCE replacement rate of 2% is not consistent with the average actual HCE replacement rate of 5.5% reported for SEGS III – VII for the period 1997–2001. Using the average replacement rate of 5.5% increases the levelized O&M cost by approximately $0.004/kWhe, an increase of 17%. There is a high risk of achieving the SunLab projected near-term O&M cost since the SunLab assumption of a 2% HCE replacement rate assumes that current approaches for reducing failures are successful. S&L believes this is an aggressive assumption that cannot be assured for future plants without the field data to verify the failure rate reduction. A lower risk would be using a HCE replacement rate of 5.5% and an annual solar-to- electric efficiency of 14.0% 4.6.5.2 Mid Term (2010) The SunLab projected mid-term O&M cost is based on an HCE replacement rate of 0.5%, a net annual solar-to- electric efficiency of 17%, and 12 hours of thermal storage using a direct thermocline system with HitecXL (ternary) solar salt. As previously indicated, there is a high risk of achieving the mid-term net annual solar-to-electric efficiency of 17.0% and a mid-term net annual solar-to-electric efficiency in the 15.4% range represents a low risk by limiting the technology improvements to currently demonstrated or tested improvements. Also, the direct thermocline thermal storage system has not been commercially demonstrated for the higher solar field operating temperatures and additional development is required for the thermocline system. In addition to the development of a thermocline system, an advanced HCE will be required to obtain the 500°C HTF operating temperature. New designs are currently under investigation that attempt to improve the reliability of the HCE. Kramer Junction is currently testing a new design UVAC2 with a revised internal shield. A more conservative replacement rate for the S&L comparison is 2.5%. There is a high risk of achieving the SunLab projected mid-term O&M cost. A lower risk would be using a HCE replacement rate of 2.5% and an annual solar-to-electric efficiency of 15.4%.PDF Image | Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts
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