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4-43 SL-5641 Final 4.6.4.3 Long Term (2020) The SunLab projected long-term total investment cost indicates a total cost of $2,221/kWe, a reduction of $655/kWe from the mid-term projected cost of $2,876/kWe, mainly attributable to the following: • An increase in the plant sizes from the 100–150-MW range to the 200–400-MW range, which reduces the $/kWe cost by virtue of the larger kWe size. • Reduced cost of solar collection system components from mid-term costs, such as HCE and mirrors, of approximately 25% as a result of technological advances, competition, and production volume. There is a high risk of achieving the SunLab projected long-term total investment cost due to the mid-term risks discussed previously. However, the risk is mitigated if the trough technology is successfully deployed to the extent that the competitive market prompts research and development of technological advances and plant sizes in the 200–400-MW range. 4.6.5 Operation and Maintenance (O&M) Costs The SunLab O&M estimate is based largely on the experience at the KJC Operating Company SEGS plants. The model assumes a stand-alone trough power plant (as opposed to the five co-located plants at Kramer Junction) and adjusts costs depending on the size of the solar field and total electric generation per year. KJC Operating Company provided proprietary information on the last five years of operation. The major cost contributors for O&M costs are as follows: • Solar field replacement of the heat collection elements (HCE) • Staffing The staffing is a fixed cost, and the SunLab projected manpower requirements are reasonable based on data from similar-sized power plants. The industry plan keys on thermal storage to obtain a high capacity factor, which reduces the O&M costs ($/MWh) by obtaining a higher annual MWh generation. The net annual solar-to-electric efficiency has a significant impact on the O&M costs. Increased efficiency reduces the size of the solar field and thus reduces the number of mirror and HCE replacements required.PDF Image | Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts
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