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4-42 SL-5641 Final to current pricing. Equipment prices in the SOAPP program reflect 2001 actual costs. Since the SOAPP pricing is current, the SOAPP-generated costs are more characteristic of current power block costs. Based on the above considerations, there is a low risk of achieving the near-term total investment cost. 4.6.4.2 Mid Term (2010) The SunLab projected mid-term total investment cost indicates a total cost of $2,876/kWe, a reduction of $1,983/kWe from the near-term projected cost of $4,859/kWe, mainly attributable to the following: • An increase in the plant size from 100 MW to 150 MW, which reduces the $/kWe cost by virtue of the larger kWe size. • Reduced cost of solar collection system components, such as HCE and mirrors, of approximately 35% as a result of technological advances, competition, and production volume. • Reduction of the thermal storage capital cost from the near-term $958/kWe to $383/kWe by using a direct thermocline thermal storage system. There is a high risk of achieving the SunLab projected mid-term total investment cost of $2,876/kWe, based on the following considerations: • The SunLab projected reduced cost of solar collection system components, such as HCE and mirrors, is based on six 100-MW plants and one 150-MW plant with improved technology being deployed in the years 2007 through 2010. Market expansion of trough technology will require incentives to reach the projected level of deployment. • The SunLab projected mid-term net annual solar-to-electric efficiency is 17.0%, an improvement of 2.7 percentage points from the near-term projected efficiency of 14.3%. The solar field size, and thus the solar field cost, is directly proportional to the net annual solar-to- electric efficiency of a trough plant. As previously discussed, there is a high risk of achieving the mid-term net annual solar-to-electric efficiency of 17.0%. Using a mid-term net annual solar-to-electric efficiency in the 15.4% range, which represents a lower risk by limiting the technology improvements to currently demonstrated or tested improvements, results in a 8% decrease in the solar field size compared to 19% decrease for a 17.0% efficiency. • The SunLab projected mid-term direct thermocline system with HitecXL (ternary) solar salt as the storage media and heat transfer fluid (HTF), allowing the solar field to be operated to higher outlet temperatures (500°C). No thermal storage technology has been commercially demonstrated for the higher solar field operating temperatures. Additional development is required for the thermocline system. In addition to the development of a thermocline system, an advanced HCE will be required to obtain the 500°C HTF operating temperature.PDF Image | Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts
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