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4-39 SL-5641 Final 4.6.1.2 Mid Term (2010) The SunLab mid-term deployment projection is six 100-MW plants and one 150-MW plant with improved technology being deployed in the years 2007 through 2010. 4.6.1.3 Long Term (2020) The SunLab long-term deployment projection is eight 150-MW plants with improved technology being deployed in the years 2010 through 2014; twelve advanced technology 200-MW plants in the years 2015 through 2020; and one 400-MW advanced technology plant in 2020. The SunLab total long-term deployment is 4,900 MW of installed capacity. 4.6.2 Net Annual Solar-to-Electric Efficiency 4.6.2.1 Near Term (2004) The SunLab projected near-term net annual solar-to-electric efficiency is 14.3%, an improvement of 3.7 percentage points from the SEGS VI 10.6% efficiency. The increased efficiency is mainly attributable to improved receiver optical and thermal emittance properties. The demonstrated improvements are the following: • Significant improvements in selective coatings have occurred since the last SEGS plant was built. The solar absorptance of the cermet tubes used at SEGS VI was approximately 91.5%. According to test data (SPF 2001), the Solel UVAC receiver tubes have a solar weighted absorptance of 94.4%. • Anti reflective coatings for glass have been improved in the last 10 years to improve durability. The new receiver tubes have anti-reflective coatings that deliver solar transmittances of 96.5%, compared with earlier coating that only allowed 92.5%. • SEGS VI had a combination of black chrome and the original generation of Luz Cermet receiver tubes. The average thermal emittance of these tubes is approximately 20% greater at 350°C. The UVAC receiver first installed at SEGS VI had a thermal emittance of 14% at 400°C. According to tests performed for Solel, the second-generation UVAC receiver had a thermal emittance of about 9% at 400°C There is a low risk of achieving the near-term net annual solar-to-electric efficiency of 14.3%, since the receiver properties that the improvement is dependent on have been demonstrated either by operating experience at the SEGS plants or from test data.PDF Image | Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts
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