Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts

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Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts ( assessment-parabolic-trough-and-power-tower-solar-technology )

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3-5 SL-5641 Final Table 3-1 — Trough Deployment Scenarios Technology Cases XXXXX Case 1 Deployment Scenario: One Plant per Year Deployment 2004 100 Technology MW 2007 100 Technology MW 2010 150 Technology MW 2015 200 Technology MW 2020 400 Technology MW 111 300 650 300 950 750 1,700 1,0002,700 400 3,100 2,750 300 650 600 1,250 1,200 2,450 2,400 4,850 400 5,250 4,900 111 11111 11111 1 Total Case 2 Deployment Scenario: Cumulative Capacity Doubled with Each New Technology Case 2004 100 Technology MW 2007 100 Technology MW 2010 150 Technology MW 2015 200 Technology MW 2020 400 Technology MW Total 111 1221 11222 1 2 2 3 3 1 1 The actual strategy employed by the plant suppliers can be significantly diverse, with more emphasis on near- term cost reduction with a minimum of risk. The suppliers may opt to provide multiple plants in the 50-MWe to 100-MWe size range with no thermal storage but with a supplemental steam generator, replicating the proven technology of the existing SEGS plants. The suppliers can rely more on initial production volume to reduce costs as opposed to efficiency and technology improvements and scale-up factors. Minimizing or eliminating thermal storage, with its current elevated cost, appreciably reduces the total direct cost of the plant as discussed Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Installed (MWe) Cumulative (MWe)

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