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1-1 SL-5641 Final 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE Several years ago, the National Research Council (NRC) issued a report (Hubbard 2000) recommending that the Department of Energy (DOE) should “limit or halt its research and development on power-tower and power- trough technologies because further refinements would not lead to deployment.” Unfortunately, the report provided no analysis or description of the various advanced technology options, their costs, or their associated technical risks that the NRC considered in arriving at these conclusions. To examine the possible factors contributing to the NRC recommendations, the DOE had the Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Program (which provides funding for trough and tower research and development) peer reviewed in the fall of 2001. This review concluded that “the CSP Program can play an important role in catalyzing further CSP technology advances, which will further improve CSP economics and market penetration” (Tester 2001). In order to resolve the differing conclusions between the NRC report and the Peer Review, and in accordance with its own strategic program review recommendations, the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), a part of the DOE, contracted Sargent & Lundy (S&L) to conduct a “due diligence-like” analysis of both trough and tower technologies and to have the results of the “due diligence” analysis reviewed by a new panel assembled by the NRC. The objective of this evaluation was to assess the cost-reduction potential of CSP technology over the next 10 to 20 years. The analysis proceeded along the following steps: 1. Examination of the current trough and tower baseline technologies that are examples of the next plants to be built, including a detailed assessment of the cost and performance basis for these plants. 2. Analysis of the industry projections for technology improvement and plant scale-up out to 2020, including a detailed assessment of the cost and performance projections for future trough and tower plants based on factors such as technology research and development (R&D) progress, economies of scale, economies of learning resulting from increased deployment, and experience-related operation and maintenance (O&M) cost reductions resulting from deployments. 3. Assessment of the level of cost reductions and performance improvements that, based on S&L experience, are most likely to be achieved, and a financial analysis of the cost of electricity from such future solar trough and tower plants.PDF Image | Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts
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