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NFT The Analysis of Risk and Return

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NFT The Analysis of Risk and Return ( nft-the-analysis-risk-and-return )

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Introduction Non-fungible token (NFT) is a way to record, verify, and track the ownership of a unique asset, either physical or digital. Consequently, NFTs can be utilized to represent a work of art, futures contract, music score, book, real estate, etc. – any type of object that could be considered unique or rare. NFTs are minted, stored and transferred on a blockchain, and therefore cannot be seized or tampered with by bad actors. On the other hand, NFT can provide an instant proof of authenticity and provenance, thus eliminating the problem of counterfeiting. In the first half of 2021, NFT sales volume rose to a record $2.5 billion1. Just like the ERC-20 token revolutionized fundraising through Initial Coin Offerings (ICO) in 2017, the ERC-721 token has been transforming the way investors interact with nonfungible assets, whose elasticity of supply is close to zero - or in some instances - absolutely zero. Both types of tokes were first minted on the Ethereum blockchain, however, recently they are also created on other types of blockchains, some of them fully dedicated to NFT (e.g., Flow, Ethernity, Efinity). In this paper, we look at the investability of the NFT startups traded in the cryptocurrency markets. First, we propose the novel classification of the NFT firms driven by the advancements in the NFT technology2. Most of these projects are linked to the NFT gaming, NFT decentralized finance (DeFi), and NFT-dedicated blockchains – networks built solely for the purpose of serving the NFT primary and secondary markets, as well as other NFT applications. Next, by analogy to the IPO, we move on to the analysis of the first-day trading characteristics. We find that, at the time of listing, the average NFT has roughly a unicorn status with 977 ($mil) of market capitalization. The average first trading day return is an astounding 1 https://www.reuters.com/technology/nft-sales-volume-surges-25-bln-2021-first-half-2021-07-05/ 2 Throughout the paper we refer to NFT startups as NFT-based projects or simply NFTs. These are young organizations that incorporate NFT technology into their main product line(s). In some instances, the NFT startups are represented solely by open-source protocols. Instead of the initial share offering, as in the standard entrepreneurship model (e.g., Shleifer and Wolfenzon, 2002), NFT startups issue cryptocurrencies or tokens (in our analysis, we make no distinction between the two). 2

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