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Mapping the NFT revolution: market trends, trade networks, and visual features Matthieu Nadini1,2, Laura Alessandretti 3, Flavio Di Giacinto1,4, Mauro Martino5, Luca Maria Aiello6 & Andrea Baronchelli1,2,7* Non Fungible Tokens (NFTs) are digital assets that represent objects like art, collectible, and in-game items. They are traded online, often with cryptocurrency, and are generally encoded within smart contracts on a blockchain. Public attention towards NFTs has exploded in 2021, when their market has experienced record sales, but little is known about the overall structure and evolution of its market. Here, we analyse data concerning 6.1 million trades of 4.7 million NFTs between June 23, 2017 and April 27, 2021, obtained primarily from Ethereum and WAX blockchains. First, we characterize statistical properties of the market. Second, we build the network of interactions, show that traders typically specialize on NFTs associated with similar objects and form tight clusters with other traders that exchange the same kind of objects. Third, we cluster objects associated to NFTs according to their visual features and show that collections contain visually homogeneous objects. Finally, we investigate the predictability of NFT sales using simple machine learning algorithms and find that sale history and, secondarily, visual features are good predictors for price. We anticipate that these findings will stimulate further research on NFT production, adoption, and trading in different contexts. “WTF are NFTs? Why crypto is dominating the art market” is the title of the February 21, 2021 episode of The Art Newspaper podcast1, signalling both the impact of Non Fungible Tokens (NFTs) on the art world and the novelty they represent for most of the general public. The revolution is not confined to the art market. While NFT adoption in gaming has already reached a certain maturity, for example concerning the trade of in-game objects, different other industries, especially those involved with the production of digital content such as music or video, are experimenting with the technology. Overall, in the first four months of 2021, the NFT volume has exceeded 2 billion USD, ten times more than the entire NFT trading volume in 20202. So, what’s an NFT? An NFT is a unit of data stored on a blockchain that certifies a digital asset to be unique and therefore not interchangeable, while offering a unique digital certificate of ownership for the NFT3. More broadly, an NFT allows to establish the “provenance” of the assigned digital object, offering indisputable answers to such questions as who owns, previously owned, and created the NFT, as well as which of the many copies is the original. Several types of digital objects can be associated to an NFT including photos, videos, and audio. NFTs are now being used to commodify digital objects in different contexts, such as art, gaming, and sports collectibles. Originally NFTs were part of the Ethereum blockchain but increasingly more blockchains have implemented their own versions of NFTs4. The first popular example of NFTs is CryptoKitties, a collection of artistic images representing virtual cats that are used in a game on Ethereum that allows players to purchase, collect, breed, and sell them on Ethereum5. In December 2017, CryptoKitties congested the Ethereum network6. By many considered a chief example of the irrationality driving the cryptocurrency market in 20177, CryptoKitties remained the only popular example of NFTs for almost 2 years. In July 2020, the NFT market started to grow2 and attracted a huge attention in March 2021, when the artist known as Beeple sold an NFT of his work for $69.3 million at Christie’s8. The purchase resulted in the third-highest auction price achieved for a living artist, after Jeff Koons and David Hockney9. Sev- eral other record sales followed10,11: three Cryptopunks—a collection of 10,000 unique automatically generated digital characters—were sold at $11.8, $7.6, and $7.6 million dollars, respectively; the first tweet was sold at $2.9 1Department of Mathematics, City University of London, London EC1V 0HB, UK. 2The Alan Turing Institute, British Library, 96 Euston Road, London NW12DB, UK. 3Technical University of Denmark, DK-2800 Kgs., Lyngby, Denmark. 4Department of Neuroscience, Catholic University of the Sacred Heart, Rome, Italy. 5IBM Research, Cambridge, MA, USA. 6IT University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark. 7UCL Centre for Blockchain Technologies, University College London, London, UK.*email: abaronchelli@turing.ac.uk (2021) 11:20902 | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-00053-8 1 Vol.:(0123456789) OPEN www.nature.com/scientificreports Scientific Reports |PDF Image | Mapping the NFT revolution
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