Load Growth Is Here to Stay but Are Data Centers

Page | 031

Appendix
Appendix
Appendix 1: Demand and Supply Forecasting Methodology and Sensitivities
E3 used published data center projections to analyze and illustrate the potential new resource builds
required to meet incremental annual energy demands driven by new data center development. E3
estimated new resource builds under a range of sensitivities examining lower energy demands from
assumed incremental energy efficiency gains to computing and cooling data center operations.
Key assumptions for the analysis include:
- Load profile of a data center has an 86% load factor (average MWh/peak)
- 1.2 Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) of new data centers is used as the starting point for
further energy efficiency improvements
- 75% or 100% of new data center energy demand is met by renewables (wind and solar) in
any year with gas meeting the remainder
- Any new renewables generation is comprised of 70% solar and 30% wind, with respective
capacity factors of 22% and 36%; other capacity generation assumes a 54% capacity factor
- For the effective capacity analysis, E3 makes simplified assumptions of Effective Load
Carrying Capability (ELCC) values (Note: the use of ELCC values in this analysis is for
illustrative purposes only and does not provide a comprehensive assessment for true
reliability planning)
o Solar, Wind, and Firm Capacity resources assume respective ELCC values of 0.2,
0.21, and 0.95 for all years
o Solar + Storage resources assume an ELCC value of 0.5 in 2024, declining linearly to
0.35 in 2030;
o assumes half of solar nameplate capacity is paired with short-duration battery
storage
Load Growth Is Here to Stay, but Are Data Centers? 29