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Page | 022 large high load factor demands, such as those from data centers, could further intensify build
requirements, underscoring the need for proactive and comprehensive resource planning processes.
Building from the energy supply analysis above, E3 demonstrates the Effective Load Carrying
Capability (ELCC) 29 (i.e. reliability or capacity value) of renewables needed to meet 100% of
projected annual energy demands under EPRI’s “Higher Energy Growth” scenario. This analysis
highlights the potential magnitude and mix of resources required to maintain acceptable levels of
reliability. To meet 100% of the incremental energy demand for data centers, 115 GW of nameplate
renewables capacity would need to be built by 2030 as illustrated in Figure 10. However, to ensure
reliable service, an additional 15 GW of additional firm capacity would still be necessary.
Figure 10: Renewables Nameplate Capacity to Meet 100% of Incremental Data Center
RE Capacity Needed to Meet 100% of post-2023 datacenter energy demand
Energy (EPRI - Higher Energy Growth)
(EPRI - Higher Energy Growth)
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
MW
60,000
40,000
20,000
-
2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Solar Wind
Using static ELCC assumptions for solar and wind to estimate each technology’s contribution to grid
reliability, E3 estimated that the effective capacity contribution of renewables in 2030 would be
nearly 23 GW, as shown in Figure 11. From EPRI’s projected energy demands, E3 estimates the
capacity needs of new data centers assuming an 86% load factor and a 15% planning reserve margin.
The remaining 16 GW gap to meet estimated capacity requirements indicates the need to consider
other capacity resources in planning efforts to maintain grid safety and reliability, whether that be
energy storage, geothermal, nuclear, demand response, or thermal resource options.
29 See here for more information on ELCC: https://www.ethree.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/E3-Practical-
Application-of-ELCC.pdf
Load Growth Is Here to Stay, but Are Data Centers? 20 |
