Comprehensive Assessment of Small CHP Technical and Market Potential in CA

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Figure G-7: Market Adoption Forecast for Small CHP Applications by Utility
Source: ICF
The micro-CHP (<50 kW) market is expected to make up close to 350 MW out of the
1.9 GW of expected adoption for <5 MW CHP systems over the next 20 years. The
amount of micro-CHP adoption could potentially increase with penetration into the
residential single family home market. The total expected adoption would also increase
with a capital cost incentive, such as the newly reinstated 10 percent investment tax
credit for CHP, or with or electricity rate reform to reduce standby rates and departing
load charges.
Potential Emissions Impacts
The analysis showed that in 2037, with 1.9 GW of small and micro CHP adopted, there
will be a significant amount of fuel savings and emissions reductions. Fuel
requirements and emissions for CHP systems with market potential were compared to
projected 2037 utility grid fossil fuel emissions in California, which would be displaced
by baseload CHP.
Overall, an estimated 39 million MMBtu/year of fuel (primarily natural gas) could be
conserved, a savings of 23 percent compared to separate heat and utility power. Along
with these energy savings, by 2037, 3,200 tons per year of NOx emissions would be
avoided through small and micro CHP installations. Greenhouse gas emissions would
also be reduced by over 1 million tons of carbon dioxide (equivalent) on an annual
basis.
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